Short answer: Dubai faces a real supply wave, but the data points to a price correction concentrated in mid-market studios and one-bedroom apartments, not a citywide glut. Moody's expects about 180,000 homes to be delivered in 2026–2028, against a historical 30,000–40,000 a year. Fitch said in 2025 that prices would correct by no more than 15%. Actual completions have historically come in well below schedule, and villas and established communities have held up better.
How many homes are being delivered in Dubai?
According to Moody's, about 180,000 new homes are due in Dubai between 2026 and 2028. That is roughly 60,000 a year, against a historical average of 30,000–40,000. Fitch, writing in 2025, put planned 2026 handovers at about 120,000 units, compared with 30,000 in 2024. It estimated that supply would grow by an average of 16% a year over 2025–2027 if there are no delays, against population growth of about 5%.
Do scheduled handovers actually get delivered?
Usually not on time. Fitch noted that 174,000 units were projected for 2022–2024 but only 97,000 arrived, a 56% completion rate. Figures compiled by INTRIC from Knight Frank put 2024 completions at 30,500 (50% of schedule) and 2025 at 39,700 (64%). Cavendish Maxwell recorded a record 24,800 completions in the first half of 2026.
| Period | Delivered | Delivered vs schedule | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022–2024 | 97,000 | 56% of 174,000 projected | Fitch |
| 2024 | 30,500 | 50% | Knight Frank (via INTRIC) |
| 2025 | 39,700 | 64% | Knight Frank (via INTRIC) |
| H1 2026 | 24,800 | Record half-year | Cavendish Maxwell (via INTRIC) |
Are Dubai property prices falling?
Partly. INTRIC reports that the ValuStrat index fell 10% from its 28 February 2026 peak to June 2026, leaving it flat year on year, with apartments down 3% and villas up 2% over the year. Fitch had forecast a moderate correction through 2026 of no more than 15%. Moody's expects "modest outright price declines" in apartments, especially mid-market studios and one-bedrooms.
Which areas and unit types face the most supply?
According to INTRIC, about 45% of stock under construction is in five districts: JVC/JVT, Dubai South, MBR City, Business Bay and Dubailand Residence Complex. About 66% of it is studios and one-bedrooms. INTRIC also reports that established villa areas and DIFC were still rising.
So, is Dubai heading for oversupply?
For one segment, the risk is real. For the whole market, the evidence is mixed. Moody's expects population growth and high-net-worth inflows to absorb most of the new supply, and says large developers are well placed to handle a slowdown. In practice, look closely at unit type, location and how many similar units are completing nearby. A studio among thousands of studios handing over in the same year carries a different risk from a villa in a finished community.
Risk by segment
| Segment | Supply pressure | What the sources say |
|---|---|---|
| Mid-market studios and 1-beds | High | Moody's: modest price declines likely |
| Apartments, citywide | Moderate | ValuStrat: down 3% year on year to June 2026 |
| Villas, established communities | Lower | ValuStrat: up 2% year on year; Moody's: more resilient |
Next step: See where new supply is landing on the Ovation map or speak to an Ovation advisor on WhatsApp (+971 58 563 6733).
Frequently asked questions
Will Dubai property prices crash in 2026?
The major ratings agencies expect a correction, not a crash. Fitch said prices would fall by no more than 15%, and Moody's expects modest declines mainly in mid-market apartments.
How many units will Dubai deliver in 2026–2028?
Moody's puts it at about 180,000 homes over the three years, or roughly 60,000 a year.
Do all scheduled units get delivered?
No. Fitch found a 56% completion rate for 2022–2024, and Knight Frank recorded 50% in 2024 and 64% in 2025.
Which property types are safest from oversupply?
On the cited data, villas in established communities have held up better than mid-market studios and one-bedroom apartments.
Where is new supply concentrated?
About 45% of stock under construction is in JVC/JVT, Dubai South, MBR City, Business Bay and Dubailand Residence Complex (INTRIC).
Sources
- Fitch Ratings via Zawya – Dubai property prices to drop but issuers have rating buffers
- Economy Middle East – Fitch: Dubai prices to drop on 2026 supply spike
- The National – Moody's: UAE property market to cool (10 Feb 2026)
- INTRIC – Dubai's supply wave (citing Cavendish Maxwell, Knight Frank, ValuStrat, Betterhomes)
This article is general information, not tax or legal advice. Confirm your position with a qualified adviser.
